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Contingent diplomacy, Conditional engagement, and Over-the-horizon strikes: a triad underpinning Joe Biden’s defense and foreign policy

President Biden remarks on the end of the War in Afghanistan already outlined what will be three of the pillars of American Defense and Foreign Policy for years to come: Contingent diplomacy, Conditional engagement, and Over-the-horizon strikes. The grand strategy is, however, to lay down the groundwork needed for a possible confrontation with China. Will these pillars withstand the stress caused by such an event? That is a question that no one can answer, not even Biden himself. Continue reading

The Afghan Evacuation Crisis, Intelligence or Political Failure? Likely a Mix of Both

Countless volumes will be written about the last few weeks of the U.S.-led military mission in Afghanistan and the evacuation crisis that engulfed it. We Firstly, we must remember that ‘a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire’ was designated as an ‘item on the agenda of the intra-Afghan dialogue and negotiations’. Political inertia can be quite powerful, and an element of political groupthink might have plagued the decision-making process across the coalition. Given the widespread low sentiment (on the ground and online) and defections across the country, intelligence projections should have been questioned and the evacuation plans gone into overdrive. Continue reading

The Fall of Afghanistan: A New Private Military Bonanza or the Dwindling of the Private Security Cover?

in mid-April the withdrawal of American troops from the country by September 11th, 2021, there has been a debate about the role security contractors will play in the future of the country. But we can only venture to speculate alternative scenarios about the future of Afghanistan. Continue reading

To invade or not to invade Taiwan now? That is China’s President Xi Jinping’s most pressing question

China’s Xi Jinping is pivoting towards a messianic path. Annexing Taiwan would guarantee him a place in the autocrats’ pantheon. As worrying and cynic as it sounds, the current historical juncture offers the best opportunity for China to attempt, finally, an incursion into Taiwan. The worst case scenario is a miscalculation that results in actual fighting between China and the U.S. The least-worst case scenario is an invasion without many casualties. Continue reading

[REPRINT] Made in China: a perilous cycle

This is a perplexing story and hardly a fairy tale [This is a reprint of a blog post published back in early 2013, when we were very concerned about China’s ‘grey zone’ transgressions and Western governments doing so little about it. Fast-forward nearly a decade and finally this is a hot topic and there is … Continue reading

Systemic insecurity in the Covid-19 Depression world. Can people cope with a perpetual global financial downturn?

Do you remember when violent attacks due to crime, terrorism or hate were something that could only happen elsewhere? Do you remember when violent attacks due to crime, terrorism, or plain hate towards a group of people (e.g. using bladed articles or vehicles as weapons) were something that could only happen elsewhere? The time has come to start fixing problems collectively rather than simply outliving them. Continue reading

Homo Iratus: The dawn and dusk of the Anglo-American liberal project?

While the American and British standing as leading liberal nations has been irreversibly eroded, it belongs to younger generations to find a common voice and a way to heal the damage and fix the rift caused by their angry progenitors: the Anglo-American Homo Iratus. Continue reading

Copy of Article 50 Brexit letter

Brexit Art 50 letter from Theresa May to EU President Tusk

The EU Federation of Planets: Between aspiration, hope, and reality

In the era of widespread fake news and willing believers, Picard’s noble and wise pronouncement could be easily ascribed to the EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, the German chancellor Angela Merkel, or any other influential European politician and many would be believe it. Continue reading

To Brexit or not: The hollow European Union referendum debate and state security

The WWIII imagined by David Cameron could only happen with the UK as a member of NATO, in or out of the European Union. As for Boris Johnson’s fears of Turkey ever joining the EU, he needs to remember that Turkey is part of NATO. Likewise, the wider debate on security has been uncomfortably hollow. All things remaining equal, perhaps it is better for you to follow your heart when voting. If state security was in your mind when casting your vote, we hope you found this post useful. Continue reading

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